Friday, January 16, 2026
DJIA
49,359
-83 (-0.17%)
S&P 500
6,940
-4 (-0.06%)
NASDAQ
23,515
-15 (-0.06%)
Stocks finish nearly flat in choppy week as small caps extend historic run; silver surges 12%
U.S. stocks finished nearly flat Friday ahead of the MLK Day weekend, ending a choppy week with large-caps slipping modestly while small caps extended their run. The S&P 500 fell 0.06% to 6,940, Nasdaq dipped 0.06% to 23,515, and Dow declined 0.17% to 49,359. The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.12% Friday and gained 2.04% for the week, marking an 11th consecutive session of outperforming the S&P 500—the longest streak since 2008.
Earnings kicked off with mixed bank results. Retail banks (JPMorgan, Citi, BofA) tumbled while investment firms (Goldman, Morgan Stanley) rallied on dealmaking revenue. Taiwan Semi jumped 4.4% Thursday on strong earnings and $52-56B in planned U.S. spending, helping chip stocks rebound. Trump’s Fed Chair comments created late-Friday volatility.
Market outlook: The “Great Rotation” continues as investors shift from mega-cap tech toward value, small caps, and infrastructure. With 10-year yields at 4.24%, high-valuation tech faces pressure. Ahead: (1) MLK Day Monday, (2) Earnings broaden (8.2% expected Q4 growth), (3) FOMC Jan 27-28 (5% cut odds). The extreme small-cap outperformance and sector dispersion suggest investors hedging mega-cap tech concentration risk.
WEEKLY PERFORMANCE
| Index | Close | Week Chg | %Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials | 49,359 | -145 | -0.29% |
| S&P 500 | 6,940 | -26 | -0.38% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 23,515 | -156 | -0.66% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,678 | +54 | +2.04% |
TREASURY YIELDS
| Maturity | Yield | Change (bp) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 3.59% | +5 |
| 10-Year | 4.24% | +6 |
| 30-Year | 4.83% | +1 |
COMMODITIES
| Commodity | Price | Week Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (COMEX, oz) | $4,595 | +2.1% |
| Silver (COMEX, oz) | $88.54 | +11.6% |
| WTI Crude (bbl) | $59.44 | +0.5% |
WEEKLY MOVERS
| Stock | Week % Change |
|---|---|
| Moderna (MRNA) | +22.0% |
| Morgan Stanley (MS) | +7.2% |
| Goldman Sachs (GS) | +5.8% |
| JPMorgan (JPM) | -5.3% |
| Atlassian (TEAM) | -19.0% |
WEEK AHEAD
- MLK Day holiday: Markets closed Monday, Jan. 19. Trading resumes Tuesday for a shortened four-day week.
- Earnings broadens: FactSet expects 8.2% Q4 earnings growth for S&P 500. Netflix reports Tuesday; J&J, Procter & Gamble, and Intel report Thursday.
- Fed meeting approaches: FOMC meets Jan 27-28. Markets price just 5% odds of a January cut as officials signal “well positioned” stance.
- Economic data: Building permits, housing starts, and existing home sales will test housing market strength amid elevated mortgage rates.
TERM OF THE WEEK
Dispersion: The spread between winners and losers within the same market or sector. High dispersion means some stocks are doing great while others struggle, even within the same index. This week showed extreme dispersion: small caps surged 2% while the Nasdaq fell 0.7%, defensive sectors rallied while financials lagged, and investment banks soared while retail banks tanked. High dispersion rewards active stock picking and sector selection more than simply buying a broad index. When dispersion is low, most stocks move together, so index investing works fine. But when dispersion is high (like now), investors need to be selective—owning the “wrong” stocks can hurt even in a rising market. The 11-session streak of small-cap outperformance is a textbook example of high dispersion, signaling a fundamental shift in market leadership.
