Friday, February 20, 2026
DJIA
49,625.97
+231 (+0.47%)
S&P 500
6,909.51
+48 (+0.69%)
NASDAQ
22,886.07
+203 (+0.90%)
Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs; stocks rally despite weak GDP and sticky inflation as Iran tensions drive oil to 6-month highs
U.S. stocks surged Friday after the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump exceeded authority under IEEPA by imposing sweeping tariffs. S&P 500 rose 0.69% to 6,909.51, Dow gained 0.47% to 49,625.97, Nasdaq jumped 0.90% to 22,886.07. For week: S&P +1.1%, Dow +0.3%, Nasdaq +1.5%, snapping five-week losing streak. Ruling struck down tariffs that collected over $175B in 2025; refund litigation likely though amounts uncertain. Trump immediately announced new 10% global tariff via alternative authorities.
Rally despite weak data: Q4 GDP 1.4% (vs. 2.9% expected), PCE inflation 2.9% YoY (core 3.0%—highest since July). Amazon +2%, Alphabet +4% on tariff relief. Blue Owl sold $1.4B loans, ended OBDC II quarterly redemptions, sparked private credit fears: Blue Owl -8.7%, Blackstone -5.3%, Apollo -5%.
Geopolitics dominate: Oil hit 6-month highs—WTI $66.39, Brent $71.76—as Trump gave Iran 10-15 day nuclear ultimatum, deployed two carriers to Middle East. Strait of Hormuz concerns (20% global oil) added ~$10 war premium. Gold $5,040 (+2% week), Bitcoin $67,729 (+2.2%). Fed minutes showed division on rate cuts. 10-year yield 4.08% (-13bp week), 2-year 3.48% (-12bp). Next week: Nvidia earnings Wednesday, Iran deadline.
WEEKLY PERFORMANCE
| Index | Close | Weekly %Chg |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials | 49,625.97 | +0.25% |
| S&P 500 | 6,909.51 | +1.07% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 22,886.07 | +1.49% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,663.78 | +3.35% |
TREASURY YIELDS
| Maturity | Yield | Weekly Chg (bp) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 3.48% | -12 |
| 10-Year | 4.08% | -13 |
| 30-Year | 4.72% | -10 |
COMMODITIES & CRYPTO
| Asset | Friday Close | Week Change |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot, oz) | $5,040 | +2.0% |
| WTI Crude Oil | $66.39 | +5.3% |
| Brent Crude Oil | $71.76 | +5.1% |
| Bitcoin | $67,729 | +2.2% |
WEEKLY MOVERS
| Stock | Week % Change |
|---|---|
| Alphabet (GOOGL) | +4.0% |
| Deere (DE) | +6.0% |
| Etsy (ETSY) | +20.0% |
| Blue Owl (OWL) | -8.7% |
| Blackstone (BX) | -5.3% |
WEEK AHEAD
- Nvidia Earnings (Wed): Most anticipated report. Blackwell demand “off the charts.” Critical AI trade test.
- Iran Deadline: Trump’s 10-15 day ultimatum expires. Military action could spike oil $10-30/barrel.
- New Tariff Plans: Trump announced 10% global tariff via alternative authorities after Court ruling.
- Private Credit: Blue Owl’s OBDC II shift raises $1.7T market liquidity concerns.
TERM OF THE WEEK
IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act): A 1977 law granting the President authority to regulate commerce during national emergencies. Trump used IEEPA to impose “reciprocal tariffs,” collecting over $175 billion in 2025. This week, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that Trump exceeded IEEPA’s authority—it was designed for targeted sanctions, not broad trade policy. The ruling strikes down these tariffs; refund litigation likely though amounts uncertain. Trump can still impose tariffs using Section 232 (national security), Section 301 (unfair trade), or other frameworks. The decision marks the first major check on Trump’s executive authority. Markets rallied on reduced tariff uncertainty, though new levies remain likely under alternative legal tools.
