Friday, March 13, 2026
DJIA
46,558.47
-119 (-0.26%)
S&P 500
6,632.19
-40 (-0.61%)
NASDAQ
22,105.36
-207 (-0.93%)
Markets post third straight weekly decline as oil nears $100; Brent crosses threshold Thursday amid Hormuz closure fears driving stagflation concerns
U.S. stocks fell for third consecutive week as energy crisis and sticky inflation fueled stagflation fears. S&P 500 dropped 0.61% Friday to 6,632.19 (weekly -1.6%, first three-week losing streak in ~1 year). Dow shed 119 points (-0.26%) to 46,558.47 (weekly -2.0%, below 47,000 for first time in 2026). Nasdaq declined 0.93% to 22,105.36 (weekly -1.3%). Russell 2000 fell 0.36% to 2,480.05 (weekly -2.2%). Financials (-3.4%) and consumer cyclicals (-3.1%) led declines; energy (+1.9%) and utilities (+0.4%) outperformed as 76% of stocks finished lower.
Rally despite weak data: February CPI rose 0.3% MoM, 2.4% YoY—unchanged from January, matching expectations. Core CPI held at 2.5% YoY (+0.2% MoM). Data predates Iran war’s full impact: gasoline rose only 0.8% MoM versus subsequent 20% surge. Shelter contributed 60% of monthly increase (+0.2% to 3.0% annual). Food inflation 3.1% YoY (coffee +18%, beef +14%). Apparel jumped 1.3% MoM (largest since Sept 2018) on tariff pass-through. Critical concern: February’s 2.4% reflects pre-Hormuz conditions; retail gas now $3.58/gallon (from $2.94). Economists project March CPI spike to 3.2%+ as energy shock propagates through supply chains.
Geopolitics dominate: WTI surged to $98.71/barrel Friday (+3.1% daily, +8.4% weekly). Brent crossed $100 Thursday, closing week at $103.14—first time above $100 since August 2022. 36% rally since Feb 28 Iran conflict onset amplified by QatarEnergy force majeure declaration, Gulf production shutdowns totaling 10M bpd. IEA deployed historic 400M barrel emergency reserve release (largest ever, double 2022 Ukraine response). Qatar Energy Minister warned Gulf exporters may halt all exports “within days” if conflict continues, potentially driving crude to $150. Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei pledged Thursday to keep Strait of Hormuz closed as “tool to pressure enemy.” Treasury Secretary Bessent authorized temporary Russian oil purchases. California gas >$5/gallon; national average rising 10¢ daily.
Weekly Performance
| Index | Close | Week % |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials | 46,558.47 | -2.0% |
| S&P 500 | 6,632.19 | -1.6% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 22,105.36 | -1.3% |
| Russell 2000 | 2,480.05 | -2.2% |
Treasury Yields
| Maturity | Yield | Week Δ (bp) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | 3.73% | +18 |
| 10-Year | 4.28% | +17 |
| 30-Year | 4.90% | +16 |
Commodities & Crypto
| Asset | Close | Week % |
|---|---|---|
| Gold (spot, oz) | $5,023 | -2.0% |
| Silver (spot, oz) | $84.00 | -0.4% |
| WTI Crude | $98.71 | +8.4% |
| Bitcoin | $72,395 | +6.7% |
Weekly Movers
| Stock | Week % |
|---|---|
| Occidental (OXY) | +12.4% |
| Exxon Mobil (XOM) | +8.8% |
| Chevron (CVX) | +6.2% |
| United Airlines (UAL) | -15.3% |
| Adobe (ADBE) | -7.6% |
| Caterpillar (CAT) | -8.4% |
Sector Rotation
| Sector | Week % |
|---|---|
| Energy (XLE) | +1.9% |
| Utilities (XLU) | +0.4% |
| Technology (XLK) | -1.8% |
| Financials (XLF) | -3.4% |
| Consumer Cyclical | -3.1% |
Week Ahead
- FOMC Meeting (Tue-Wed): Fed expected to hold rates 4.25-4.50% amid stagflation dilemma. Dot plot, Powell presser critical.
- PPI (Thu): February wholesale prices. Tariff pass-through, energy transmission.
- Industrial Production (Mon): February output amid supply stress.
- Housing Starts (Wed): Mortgage rates back near 7%.
- Iran War: Hormuz effectively closed. Force majeure declarations intensify.
Term of the Week
Force Majeure: French civil law clause (literally “superior force”) excusing contractual obligations due to extraordinary circumstances beyond control—war, disasters, government acts. QatarEnergy’s declaration this week marked first major LNG supplier invocation since 2011 Fukushima, legally suspending delivery obligations to Asian buyers (China, India, Japan, South Korea—75% of Gulf oil/LNG imports). Cascades through energy derivatives: triggers CDS settlements, invalidates forward contracts, forces spot purchases at inflated prices. Historical precedent shows asymmetric volatility—upward spikes immediate, supply normalization lags weeks as liquefaction facilities require restart protocols (nitrogen purging, cooling, safety inspections). Qatar cited “acts of war affecting production” despite Ras Laffan infrastructure physically intact—force majeure applies to operational impossibility, not just physical destruction. Portfolio implications: integrated upstream supermajors (Exxon, Chevron) benefit from spot premiums as contracts revalue higher; pure-play traders/consumers face margin compression. This week validated: Exxon +8.8%, Chevron +6.2% outperformed; airlines (United -15.3%), industrials faced earnings downgrades. IEA’s 400M barrel strategic release attempts to mitigate impact, though effectiveness depends on conflict duration and Gulf restart timelines.
