Week Ending June 26, 2026
DJIA
51,876
+0.6% (wk)
S&P 500
7,354
-1.9% (wk)
NASDAQ
25,298
-4.6% (wk)
Nasdaq posts fifth straight losing session in worst week since April as Mag7 rotation accelerates; Micron earnings blowout overshadowed by Apple price hikes and OpenAI IPO delay; Trump alleges Iran ceasefire violation
Markets closed a sharply divided week Friday with the Nasdaq Composite posting its fifth consecutive losing session—the first such streak since February—while the Dow held modest weekly gains. The Nasdaq fell 0.24% Friday to 25,297.62 (-4.6% week, worst since the early-June Broadcom shock), the S&P 500 slipped 0.05% to 7,354.02 (-1.9% week), and the Dow lost 44.51 points (-0.09%) to 51,876.11 (+0.6% week). The Russell 2000 held near 3,000, signaling persistent broadening despite the mega-cap technology unwind. The week’s narrative was textbook rotation from concentrated AI infrastructure plays into broader market participation. Tuesday’s tech selloff set the tone (Nasdaq -2.21%, Micron crashing 13.18% on SK Hynix HBM4 slowdown news, VIX +13% to 19.49). Wednesday stabilized as the Dow set a record close at 51,848.90 while oil collapsed: Brent -4.33% to $73.74 (lowest since pre-war February), WTI -3.92% to $70.34. Thursday delivered the K-shaped peak: Dow touched an intraday record 52,655.66 while the Nasdaq slumped on Apple’s surprise consumer hardware price hikes. Friday extended tech weakness as OpenAI IPO delay reports and a fresh Iran ceasefire incident clouded sentiment.
Wednesday evening delivered the week’s signature event: Micron Technology’s fiscal Q3 results obliterated expectations. The memory chipmaker posted $25.11 EPS versus $20.78 consensus, with revenue quadrupling to $41.46 billion (versus $35.85 billion expected) from $9.3 billion a year prior. Q4 guidance for $50 billion revenue dwarfed the $43.58 billion forecast, and cloud memory revenue surged over 300% to $13.77 billion. The stock rocketed 15% Thursday, while Qualcomm gained 9% after doubling its 2029 non-handset revenue projection to $40 billion. However, Thursday’s session was hijacked by Apple’s stunning negative surprise: the iPhone maker raised MacBook and iPad prices citing surging memory costs—a tacit admission that AI infrastructure boom is driving inflation in consumer hardware. Apple plunged 6%, dragging the Mag7 lower (Nvidia, Oracle, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft all -2%). Microsoft separately raised Xbox console prices ($100/$150). Friday brought a fresh shock from The New York Times: OpenAI is reportedly delaying its IPO until 2027, with Altman reportedly telling advisers any reduction from the $1 trillion target valuation was a “nonstarter.” JPMorgan analysts wrote this raises concerns about “sustainability of their infrastructure spending given delay in funding from capital markets.” South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 5.8% Friday (-8% intraday triggered a circuit breaker) as the tech selloff went global.
Thursday’s PCE inflation report supplied critical macro context. May headline PCE rose 4.1% annually—the highest since April 2023—while core PCE hit 3.4% (highest since October 2023). The monthly readings of 0.4% headline (below 0.5% expected) and 0.3% core (in line) provided modest relief. Friday’s University of Michigan final June consumer sentiment came in at 49.5, above the 49.0 consensus and up 10.5% from May, with long-term inflation expectations plunging. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari delivered the week’s most significant Fed commentary, stating Friday he “altered his outlook and anticipates one interest rate hike this year”—a clear hawkish migration from his prior dovish positioning. President Trump posted on Truth Social Friday alleging Iran “shot at least four One Way Attack Drones at Ships transversing the Strait of Hormuz,” with one drone hitting “the upper deck of a large and very expensive Cargo Carrying Ship”—calling it a “foolish violation” of the ceasefire. Despite the incident, oil prices continued falling (WTI -4.1%, Brent -4.5%) as tanker traffic flowed largely unimpeded. Other developments: Alphabet replaces Verizon in the Dow June 29; Bayer surged 16% on a 7-2 Supreme Court Roundup ruling; Merck acquired Bio-Techne for $73/share ($11.3B); Wendy’s continued its meme rally (+32% week); SpaceX’s bond offering attracted $89 billion in orders (4x oversubscribed) and Russell 1000 inclusion was fast-tracked for after Friday’s close.
Weekly Performance
| Index | Close | Week Chg | %Chg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dow Industrials | 51,876 | +311 | +0.6% |
| S&P 500 | 7,354 | -146 | -1.9% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 25,298 | -1,220 | -4.6% |
| Russell 2000 | ~3,000 | ~+20 | ~+0.7% |
Micron Earnings (Q3 FY26)
| Metric | Reported | vs Est |
|---|---|---|
| EPS | $25.11 | vs $20.78 |
| Revenue | $41.46B | vs $35.85B |
| vs Year-Ago | $9.3B | 4x growth |
| Q4 Guide | $50B | vs $43.58B |
| Cloud memory rev | $13.77B | +300% YoY |
PCE & Consumer Sentiment
| Indicator | Reading | Note |
|---|---|---|
| PCE Headline YoY | 4.1% | Since Apr ’23 |
| PCE Core YoY | 3.4% | Since Oct ’23 |
| PCE Headline MoM | +0.4% | Below est |
| UMich Final June | 49.5 | +10.5% MoM |
Weekly Movers
| Stock | Notable Move |
|---|---|
| Wendy’s (WEN) wk | +32% |
| Bio-Techne Thu | +19% |
| Micron (MU) Thu | +15% |
| Bayer ADR Thu | +16% |
| Qualcomm Thu | +9% |
| Apple (AAPL) Thu | -6% |
| Micron (MU) Tue | -13% |
| WTI Crude (wk) | ~-7% |
Week Ahead
- Holiday-Shortened Week: Markets close Friday July 3 for July 4th. Non-farm payrolls data due. Watch whether Mag7 rotation extends or stabilizes amid quiet macro calendar.
- Alphabet Joins Dow June 29: Replaces Verizon. Mega-cap tech’s blue-chip presence expands amid the very week tech is rotating out. Watch GOOGL trading dynamics into inclusion.
- OpenAI IPO Delay Implications: $1T valuation impasse signals private market funding stress. Combined with Alphabet’s $80B raise, Meta secondary, SpaceX bonds—hyperscaler capital intensity intensifying. AI funding pipeline becomes acute risk.
- Kashkari’s Pivot: Minneapolis Fed now sees one hike in 2026 (joining hawkish majority). Combined with PCE 4.1% headline + UMich sentiment improvement, July FOMC stance turning genuinely hawkish. Watch July FOMC minutes for color.
- Iran Ceasefire Test: Trump alleging Hormuz drone violation, but oil ignored news (-4% Friday on continued traffic flow). Watch escalation risk vs. continued tanker traffic restoration as 60-day MOU period progresses.
Term of the Week
Memory Mania: The supply-demand imbalance gripping DRAM and HBM (high-bandwidth memory) chip markets as AI infrastructure buildout consumes capacity faster than producers can expand, driving record pricing, blockbuster earnings, and now consumer hardware inflation. The week ending June 26, 2026 crystallized the phenomenon. Micron’s fiscal Q3 results delivered the cleanest demonstration: $41.46 billion revenue (quadrupled from $9.3 billion a year earlier), cloud memory revenue up over 300% to $13.77 billion, and Q4 guidance of $50 billion that dwarfed the $43.58 billion consensus. Sandisk has become the S&P 500’s best-performing stock in 2026. Qualcomm doubled its 2029 non-handset revenue projection to $40 billion. The supply-side mechanics drive the squeeze: memory chips require multi-billion-dollar fabs with 3-4 year construction lead times—capacity cannot expand at the pace AI training cluster deployment demands. SK Hynix’s announced slowdown in HBM4 mass production (citing Nvidia Rubin chip forecast revisions) confirmed structural tightness rather than weakness. The June 25 development came from the demand side. Apple raised MacBook and iPad prices citing memory cost pressures—the first major consumer hardware vendor to publicly acknowledge AI memory inflation reaching end users. Microsoft followed with Xbox price hikes for the same reason. This represents a critical inflection: AI infrastructure costs are now passing through to consumer goods, validating concerns that the AI buildout is inflationary rather than disinflationary as productivity bulls argued. The current cycle differs structurally from 1999-2000’s memory glut because AI workloads consume memory at fundamentally higher ratios than traditional computing. The risks are clear: if Apple and Microsoft can pass through costs to consumers, hyperscalers may struggle to do the same—their capex intensifies (Alphabet $80B raise, Meta secondary, SpaceX bonds, OpenAI’s IPO delay) while AI revenue generation lags. The OpenAI IPO delay is particularly significant: holding out for a $1 trillion valuation rather than accepting lower terms suggests private capital markets aren’t fully validating AI valuations either. The thesis test arrives at July earnings: hyperscaler capex guidance versus free cash flow trajectories will determine whether memory mania marks a multi-year supercycle or peak euphoria before normalization.
